FPL Week 5 Picks and Predictions

I don’t care how sophisticated of a model you have, nothing could’ve predicted some of the events that unfolded in Week 4 of the Premier League. And honestly that’s a big part of what makes sports, and soccer in particular, so much fun. A huge part of the game is due to luck and random chance — two things any statistical or machine learning model (or human gut feelings for that matter) can never account for. 

Even with this sobering bit of reality, I’m pushing forward with more picks and predictions for Week 5 of the Fantasy Premier League season. These predictions are still based on the orginal multiple linear regression model, but you can expect improvements to that coming very soon. 

So here we go. Here are your best and worst picks for match week 5.  Data is again provided in the format of: player name, position, team, predicted points, cost. 

Best Bargains 

1. Bernd Leno — GKP — Arsenal — 4.03 — £5.0

2. Tom Heaton — GKP — Aston Villa — 3.44 — £4.5

3. Reece James — DEF — Chelsea — 3.83 — £4.4

4. Mason Mount — MID — Chelsea — 5.11 — £6.9

5. Hugo Lloris — GKP — Tottenham — 3.88 — £5.5

Worst Pick-Ups 

1. Joel Ward — DEF — Crystal Palace — 0.06 — £4.5

2. Wes Morgan — DEF — Leicester — 0.06 — £4.4

3. Daniel Amartey — DEF — Leicester — 0.06 — £4.0

4. Nampalys Mendy — MID — Leicester — 0.08 — £4.5

5. Wayne Hennessey — GKP — Crystal Palace — 0.09 — £4.5 

My model clearly has an affinity for middle-of-the-pack goalkeepers on teams that have gotten off to a good start – those guys seem to be cheap enough and also pick up a solid number of points every week. Also, it seems to hate Leicester reserve players for some reason… perhaps those players could use a slight downgrade in cost.