U.S merchandise trade activity fell by 1.4% year over year in February, Panjiva’s analysis of official data shows. That marks the fifth consecutive decline, albeit at a slower rate than seen in the prior two months. Imports and exports in total fell by similar amounts.
As flagged in Panjiva’s research of March 25 the rate of decline in imports is set to accelerate. There was an aggregate drop of 15.0% year over year in U.S. seaborne imports in the first two weeks of March compared to a year earlier as a result of the impact of coronavirus-linked disruptions.
IMPORT DECLINE SLOWED IN FEBRUARY, BUT STILL PROBLEMATIC
In that regard there was already a slide in imports of consumer goods of 7.5% year over year while autos dropped by 5.9% and capital goods by 1.8%. The consumer line may fall even faster in March on the basis of preliminary data, particularly given the reliance on China for supplies of many consumer products. The drop in section 301 duties on imports from China to 7.5% from 15.0% does not appear to have made a marked difference.
CONSUMERS LEAD THE IMPORT DOWNTURN IN 2020
The autos industry has also seen a 10.9% slide in exports – the fastest rate since July 2015 – likely linked in part to lower sales as well as supply chain sourcing issues. That uncertainty looks set to persist – indeed General Motors has withdrawn its guidance according to S&P Global Market Intelligence – with most major automakers closing or reducing production at their factories.
Panjiva’s data shows U.S. seaborne imports of vehicles and components (HS 87) likely already fell by 12.1% in the first two weeks of March compared to a year earlier.
EXPORT REVERSAL BODES ILL FOR U.S. AUTOS INDUSTRY
