U.S. demand for refined petroleum products is forecast to decline 0.9% by volume annually through 2024, according to Refined Petroleum Products: United States, a new report from Freedonia Focus Reports.
Decreases will largely reflect the increasing fuel efficiency of U.S. motor vehicles, Kallanish Energy understands. Distillate fuel’s share of total demand is expected to rise, due to most efficiency gains affecting gasoline-powered light vehicles rather than diesel-powered medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
Expanding use of public transport, alongside increasing use of hybrid and electric vehicles, is also expected to weigh on demand, according to Freedonia. Modest advances in the number of motor vehicles in use, as well as growing exports, will prevent faster declines.
U.S. output of refined petroleum products is projected to decrease 0.6% per annum in volume terms through 2024. Losses will be attributed to domestic constraints, as U.S. consumption levels of gasoline, the dominant demand segment, are forecast to decline.
However, increasing domestic crude oil production from shale over the forecast period will benefit U.S. petroleum refiners as U.S. exports of gasoline, petroleum coke, and jet fuel tap into advances in global demand, according to Freedonia.
