The first major post-mortem of Labour’s disastrous general election has delivered a scathing verdict on a “lethal mix” of weak leadership and extreme politics under Jeremy Corbyn which drove millions of the party’s traditional voters into the arms of the Tories.
The report, commissioned by former leader Tony Blair, said that Corbyn’s removal alone will not be enough to restore the party’s fortunes. Labour must also discard his “sectarian ultra-left politics” before it can begin the journey back from the political wilderness.
Launching the report in London on Wednesday, Mr Blair will warn that Labour faces being eclipsed as a serious competitor for power if it fails to renew itself.
And he will say that any attempt by the current leadership to “whitewash” the reality of the debacle would cause “irreparable damage” to Labour’s fortunes.
“This election was no ordinary defeat for Labour,” three-time election-winner Blair will say. “It marks a moment in history.
1/6 Angela Rayner
The shadow education secretary is likely to be in the mix for the party’s leadership after Corbyn’s resignation. Rayner was brought up on a council estate, left her local comprehensive school with no qualifications, and gave birth to her first son, Ryan, at the age of 16.
She rose through the ranks of the trade union movement to become the most senior elected official of Unison before being elected to her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency in 2015. In her current role she spearheaded Labour’s “national education service” and has championed the abolition of tuition fees.
After the devastating election result unfolded, Ms Rayner said: “Thank you to all our volunteers, staff and activists who have worked their socks off. I know the exit poll is incredible devastating but we will continue to keep faith in our great movement and the UK.” – Ashley Cowburn
PA
2/6 Rebecca Long-Bailey
A key ally of the current left-wing leadership of the party, the Salford & Eccles MP is viewed in some quarters as the natural successor to Mr Corbyn and describes herself as a “proud socialist”. Highly regarded by the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. She won also won plaudits for her performance filling in for Corbyn both at prime minister’s questions and during the general election debates.
The shadow business secretary grew up by Old Trafford football ground and began her working life serving at the counter of a pawn shop.
As the polls unfolded, she would not be drawn on whether she wanted to be the party’s leader. “It’s not something that I’m thinking about, I think we need to get through tonight, see where the chips fall and then we will re-group as a party, asses what’s happened and what the next steps need to be,” she said. – Ashley Cowburn
PA
3/6 Keir Starmer
The former director of public prosecutions undoubtedly has ambitions to lead the party, and is highly-regarded by both left-wingers and centrists in the party. As Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary, he played a key role in the party’s eventual backing of a second referendum.
Before becoming an MP, he was a human rights lawyer – conducting cases in international courts including the European Court of Human Rights.
In June this year, a YouGov poll of party members found he was the narrow favourite in terms of being a good leader if Jeremy Corbyn stood down before the next election, ahead of Thornberry.
Speaking after his re-election in Holborn & St Pancras, he said: “There is no hiding from the overall result. It is devastating. It will hurt the millions of people who so desperately need a Labour government. They have suffered so much under ten years of Tory austerity and will suffer more because of this result. We must now reflect; we must also rebuild.” – Ashley Cowburn
EPA
4/6 Jess Phillips
The MP for Birmingham Yardley has been a prominent critic of the Labour leadership, and said at her victory speech in the early hours of Friday morning that it was clear her party needed “structural change”.
“The reality is that the Labour Party has got to do a huge amount more than just think getting rid of one man – will just simply make it OK,” she added.
Before being elected to parliament, Phillips worked for Women’s Aid, supporting female victims of domestic abuse. She has previously suggested she would run for the leadership should the position become vacant, but given the left-wing membership of the Labour Party, Phillips would likely find it difficult to gain traction in any leadership contest. – Ashley Cowburn
PA
5/6 Emily Thornberry
Corbyn’s constituency neighbour and friend, Emily Thornberry, has been critical of the party’s Brexit stance, but has remained loyal to the leadership and has represented the Labour Party on various overseas visits.
The 59-year-old was brought up on a council estate near Guildford in Surrey by her mother when her father, a human rights lawyer and academic, walked out on his family. “I was born into the Labour Party,” she once said. “I was delivering leaflets by the age I could reach the letter box.”
First elected as MP for Islington South in 2005, the shadow foreign secretary is likely to be considering a bid for the leadership, but the party may be looking for a leadership outside its London stronghold.
After winning back her seat in same venue as Corbyn, she said: “We may be hurting tonight but we are not beaten. We will tell Boris Johnson no our fight is not over, our fight is just starting.” – Ashley Cowburn
Reuters
6/6 Yvette Cooper
Cooper came third in the Labour leadership election in 2015, with just 19 per cent of the vote share – dwarfed by Corbyn’s 59%. But Cooper, who has maintained a high-profile in recent years as chair of the Commons home affairs committee for grilling ministers, could attempt a second shot at the leadership.
Unlike the other possible contenders, Cooper, who has been an MP since 1997, has experience in government having served as chief secretary to the Treasury and secretary of state for work and pensions under Gordon Brown. – Ashley Cowburn
Reuters
1/6 Angela Rayner
The shadow education secretary is likely to be in the mix for the party’s leadership after Corbyn’s resignation. Rayner was brought up on a council estate, left her local comprehensive school with no qualifications, and gave birth to her first son, Ryan, at the age of 16.
She rose through the ranks of the trade union movement to become the most senior elected official of Unison before being elected to her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency in 2015. In her current role she spearheaded Labour’s “national education service” and has championed the abolition of tuition fees.
After the devastating election result unfolded, Ms Rayner said: “Thank you to all our volunteers, staff and activists who have worked their socks off. I know the exit poll is incredible devastating but we will continue to keep faith in our great movement and the UK.” – Ashley Cowburn
PA
2/6 Rebecca Long-Bailey
A key ally of the current left-wing leadership of the party, the Salford & Eccles MP is viewed in some quarters as the natural successor to Mr Corbyn and describes herself as a “proud socialist”. Highly regarded by the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. She won also won plaudits for her performance filling in for Corbyn both at prime minister’s questions and during the general election debates.
The shadow business secretary grew up by Old Trafford football ground and began her working life serving at the counter of a pawn shop.
As the polls unfolded, she would not be drawn on whether she wanted to be the party’s leader. “It’s not something that I’m thinking about, I think we need to get through tonight, see where the chips fall and then we will re-group as a party, asses what’s happened and what the next steps need to be,” she said. – Ashley Cowburn
PA
3/6 Keir Starmer
The former director of public prosecutions undoubtedly has ambitions to lead the party, and is highly-regarded by both left-wingers and centrists in the party. As Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary, he played a key role in the party’s eventual backing of a second referendum.
Before becoming an MP, he was a human rights lawyer – conducting cases in international courts including the European Court of Human Rights.
In June this year, a YouGov poll of party members found he was the narrow favourite in terms of being a good leader if Jeremy Corbyn stood down before the next election, ahead of Thornberry.
Speaking after his re-election in Holborn & St Pancras, he said: “There is no hiding from the overall result. It is devastating. It will hurt the millions of people who so desperately need a Labour government. They have suffered so much under ten years of Tory austerity and will suffer more because of this result. We must now reflect; we must also rebuild.” – Ashley Cowburn
EPA
4/6 Jess Phillips
The MP for Birmingham Yardley has been a prominent critic of the Labour leadership, and said at her victory speech in the early hours of Friday morning that it was clear her party needed “structural change”.
“The reality is that the Labour Party has got to do a huge amount more than just think getting rid of one man – will just simply make it OK,” she added.
Before being elected to parliament, Phillips worked for Women’s Aid, supporting female victims of domestic abuse. She has previously suggested she would run for the leadership should the position become vacant, but given the left-wing membership of the Labour Party, Phillips would likely find it difficult to gain traction in any leadership contest. – Ashley Cowburn
PA
5/6 Emily Thornberry
Corbyn’s constituency neighbour and friend, Emily Thornberry, has been critical of the party’s Brexit stance, but has remained loyal to the leadership and has represented the Labour Party on various overseas visits.
The 59-year-old was brought up on a council estate near Guildford in Surrey by her mother when her father, a human rights lawyer and academic, walked out on his family. “I was born into the Labour Party,” she once said. “I was delivering leaflets by the age I could reach the letter box.”
First elected as MP for Islington South in 2005, the shadow foreign secretary is likely to be considering a bid for the leadership, but the party may be looking for a leadership outside its London stronghold.
After winning back her seat in same venue as Corbyn, she said: “We may be hurting tonight but we are not beaten. We will tell Boris Johnson no our fight is not over, our fight is just starting.” – Ashley Cowburn
Reuters
6/6 Yvette Cooper
Cooper came third in the Labour leadership election in 2015, with just 19 per cent of the vote share – dwarfed by Corbyn’s 59%. But Cooper, who has maintained a high-profile in recent years as chair of the Commons home affairs committee for grilling ministers, could attempt a second shot at the leadership.
Unlike the other possible contenders, Cooper, who has been an MP since 1997, has experience in government having served as chief secretary to the Treasury and secretary of state for work and pensions under Gordon Brown. – Ashley Cowburn
Reuters
“The choice for Labour is to renew itself as the serious, progressive, non-Conservative competitor for power in British politics; or retreat from such an ambition, in which case over time it will be replaced.”
Mr Corbyn has called for a process of reflection following Thursday’s defeat, which saw Labour shed 59 seats including constituencies held by the party for generations, in its worst performance since 1935.
But Mr Blair will say: “At one level, sure, let’s have a period of ‘reflection’.
“But any attempt to whitewash this defeat, pretend it is something other than it is, or the consequence of something other than the obvious, will cause irreparable damage to our relationship with the electorate.”
The report by pollster Peter Kellner and former government adviser Patrick Loughran for the Tony Blair Institute, is named Northern Discomfort, and looks at the causes behind the loss to Tories of Labour strongholds across the north of England, like Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Hartlepool, Workington and Blair’s own former seat of Sedgefield.
Its title echoes the Southern Discomfort report compiled following Labour’s fourth successive election defeat in 1992, widely credited with sowing the seeds for the revival of the party’s fortunes as New Labour under Mr Blair.
Drawing on surveys of voters and focus groups in Labour heartland areas – Bishop Auckland, Walsall and Bassetlaw – the report rejected the claims of Mr Corbyn and his inner circle that Brexit was to blame for drowning out the party’s message.
Blaming Brexit “would blind the party to the real reasons for the scale, consequences and reasons for this historic defeat”, the report found.
“It was the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and the politics he represents that caused the real rupture with long-held loyalties.”
The report found a common feeling that Labour was “no longer on the side of traditional working-class voters” and was “no longer providing an acceptable alternative to the Tories”.
A “deep distaste” for Mr Corbyn and his politics had “seeped into the bones of voters’ attitudes” since the previous elections in 2017, when he was relatively unknown to voters.
And in findings which the authors described as “truly shocking”, the report found “visceral” distrust of Mr Corbyn’s ability to stand up and defend Britain, with just 24 per cent of voters – and only 61 per cent of those who stuck with Labour – describing him as “patriotic”.
It quoted focus group members – all previous Labour voters – as saying “the IRA were terrorists but Corbyn was happy to sit down with them” and “Do I trust him to keep my country safe? No I don’t”.
While a number of Labour’s policies were popular, the report found voters did not believe the party would be able to deliver them effectively. Some 60 per cent of those who defected to other parties – and almost one in five of those who stayed with Labour – said they did not trust Corbyn’s team to spend money wisely.
Tellingly, focus groups members mentioned the offer of free broadband “not as a cause for enthusiasm but as a tipping point for the lack of seriousness of Labour’s free offers”.
“It’s just ludicrous,” one woman in a Worksop focus group said. “Where did they pull that from? They’re the sort of things that make them look daft.”
The report found that since its last election victory in 2005, Labour had already shed thousands of voters in its core areas, who Mr Corbyn needed to win back to stand a chance of reaching 10 Downing Street.
“Instead, his leadership and his political strategy achieved precisely the opposite,” the report said. “They drove even more traditional Labour supporters away from the party. What is more, a significant minority even of those who stayed did so despite its leadership and policy positions, not because of them.”
Far from Labour’s problems being caused by Boris Johnson broadening Conservatives’ appeal, it was the party’s own leadership and policies which had driven its core voters away, the report found.
In a poll for the report, some 34 per cent of those who voted Labour said they disliked Corbyn, suggesting that as many as 3.5 million of the 10.3 million people who backed the party last week did so in spite of its leader, not because of him.
By more than two-to-one, voters who abandoned Labour said that its policies were “too extreme” – and almost a quarter (24 per cent) of those who stayed with the party agreed.
To give Labour a chance of returning to power, a new leader must not only reverse the impression that the party was “out-of-touch, extreme, unpatriotic and incompetent” but also construct “a compelling narrative of what is wrong with Britain and how to put it right”, the report found.
