It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD – Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
ACADIA Q3 Earnings Miss, Nuplazid Drives Revenues Y/Y
ACADIA reported third-quarter 2020 loss of 54 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 38 cents as well as the year-ago loss of 29 cents.
Total revenues comprising net sales of the company’s only marketed drug Nuplazid jumped 27% year over year to $120.6 million in the third quarter. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $119 million.
Quarter in Detail
Research and development (R&D) expenses were $120.1 million in the quarter, up 91.8% from the year-ago period due to higher expenses related to the acquisition of CerSci Therapeutics in August 2020.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 12.2% year over year to $81.6 million due to increased advertising and promotional costs, and higher personnel costs.
As of Sep 30, 2020, ACADIA had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $644.4 million compared with $658.6 million as of Jun 30, 2020.
2020 Guidance
ACADIA reiterated its net sales view for Nuplazid. The company expects total revenues in the range of $430-$450 million for 2020. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric stands at $442.5 million.
Meanwhile, the company increased its R&D expenses for the full year, to $325-$340 million compared with the previous guided range of $265-$280 million. SG&A expenses are projected in the band of $385-$400 million, lower than the earlier forecast of $400-$420 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -5.14% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Acadia has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It’s no surprise Acadia has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
