Since the early days of the pandemic there’s been no lack of dramatic speculation as to how COVID-19 and related public health orders would decimate the restaurant industry.
Estimates last spring projected the eventual impact on dining out as resulting in closures of 10% to 50% plus of all restaurant locations.
However, now that we’re eight months-plus into the crisis, data is emerging that more soberly suggests the pandemic’s eventual impact.
A recent article in Nation’s Restaurant News, a periodical dedicated to the dining out industry, reported on analysis done by two independent financial research groups, New Jersey-based Kalinowski Equity Research and BTIG, a global financial services firm headquartered in New York City. The data and conclusions those two firms reported provide a still-bleak but not quite as catastrophic outlook on the industry’s future.
Kalinowski’s predictions are based on the day-to-day developments in the industry.
Very large chains, with deep pockets and plenty of resources, have been successfully pivoting to curbside, drive-thru, and digital strategies. Those chains have thus been able to limit their downsizing to the closure of a relatively small number of underperforming units.
According to Kalinowki’s analysis, smaller chains are likely to be hit harder, likely having to shutter around 4% of their locations before the year is out.
When it comes to independents, Kalinowki’s estimates are that around 8% of such restaurants will permanently close.
The analysis by BTIG focused primarily on restaurant cash flow, which the firm says has improved every month since April and, according to their estimates, is now positive for many brands and operations.
Given such cash flows and even factoring in the partial shutdowns now being ordered, BTIC’s estimate of total restaurant closures this year is in what they term “the high single-digit range.”
The complete article summarizing these two sets of predictions can be seen at nrn.com/operations/covid-related-restaurant-closures-mount-perhaps-less-dire-forecast.
Arby’s Restaurant locations have brought back a seasonal favorite, deep-fried turkey, in two sandwich combinations, both available until the end of the year.
A deep-fried turkey club is assembled from deep-fried turkey breast, cheddar, and bacon before being garnished with lettuce, tomato, and mayo.
Featuring the sweet-sour tang of cranberry, a “Market Fresh” cranberry sandwich brings together deep-fried turkey, Swiss cheese, bacon, and cranberry spread. Lettuce, tomato, and mayonnaise complete the presentation.
There is an Arby’s location on Granby Road in Chicopee, just off Memorial Drive
The Munich Haus German Restaurant in Chicopee once again plans to welcome the Dan Kane Carolers this holiday season. The Carolers will be performing from December 10 through 23 each evening except Mondays starting at 6:30 p.m. Reservations are required, but requests for specific seats cannot be honored.
Contact the restaurant at (413) 594-8788 for more information.
Chick-fil-A has also added two new items to its menu, both for a limited time only.
Available until mid-January, the peppermint chip milkshake gets its flavor and a bit of crunch from peppermint candy bark.
Chick-fil-A’s version of a Tex-Mex classic, chicken tortilla soup, is also being offered until April 24, 2021. It features shredded chicken with navy and black beans, vegetables, and spices as well the traditional tortilla strip garnish.
Joseph’s at Cold Spring in Belchertown has adjusted their operating hours. They are now open for breakfast and lunch every Saturday and Sunday from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m.
The restaurant, which is located in the clubhouse of the Cold Spring Country Club on Chauncey Walker Street, is doing business on a limited basis during the winter season while the club’s course is closed.
Their weekend breakfast and lunch menu can be seen at their website, josephsatcoldspring.com
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and Brew locations are celebrating the holidays with the return of the gingerbread milkshake. Designed to serve as either beverage or dessert, the shake is made with a soft-serve base that has gingerbread syrup and graham cracker crumbs blended in. Finished with whipped topping, the milkshake is also garnished with more graham cracker crumbs and a gingerbread man cookie.
The gingerbread milkshake will be available at participating Red Robin locations as long as supplies last.
30Boltwood Restaurant in the Inn on Boltwood in Amherst will be holding Holiday Teas on Saturdays this December. To be served between 12 noon to 4 p.m., the tea includes an assortment of scones, tea sandwiches, three-bite desserts, and petit fours. A two-cup pot of tea is also brewed for each guest.
Cost to participate is $37 per person, which does not include tax or gratuity. Reservations are required.
Contact 30Boltwood at (413) 835-2011. More information about the tea can be found that their web site, 30boltwood.com
As part of a corporate strategy to rebuild breakfast traffic and increase overall customer visits, McDonald’s has introduced new pastry items to its menu, the first such addition since 2012. Items that debuted last month include an apple fritter, a blueberry muffin, and a cinnamon roll.
The fritter, a fried pastry filled with cinnamon and apples, is finished with a sweet glaze.
Served warm, the new cinnamon roll is drizzled with cream cheese icing.
McDonald’s new blueberry muffin is made with real fruit and topped with streusel crumbs.
All three items are available throughout the day and are being promoted not only as a breakfast indulgence but also as dessert or between-meal snack.
In an effort to increase use of the chain’s mobile “Order & Pay” app, participating McDonald’s locations are offering “Free Fries on Fry Day” each Friday for the rest of the year. To qualify for the deal, there must be a $1 minimum order placed using the McD app’s “Order & Pay” function.
The McD app can be downloaded from either of the major app stores.
Steaming Tender Restaurant in Palmer is doing its part to support local Christmas tree farms this season by holding a “Bring a tree, kids eat free” promotion.
Those visiting Steaming Tender after picking out and cutting their tree at a nearby tree farm will receive a complimentary child’s meal with every paying adult in the party.
For more details on this “Bring a tree” offer, contact Steaming Tender Restaurant at (413) 283-2744.
One problematic aspect of the pandemic-fueled growth in restaurant takeout and delivery is the mountains of single-use wrappers and containers that have been used. Food service operations struggling to survive had found themselves forced to be environmental “bad guys” in the process.
A small New York City-based startup, DeliverZero, believes it may have an answer to the food delivery waste problem. A third party restaurant delivery service with a business model similar to that of Uber Eats and its competitors, DeliverZero differs in that it only delivers restaurant food packed in reusable packaging.
Customers place their orders at DeliverZero’s website; the service currently has a roster of participating restaurants in Brooklyn, Queens, and Manhattan.
Individual accounts that tally the number of containers delivered are maintained for each customers, and recipients of DeliverZero can either drop off containers to be reused at a participating restaurant or hand over the packaging when they receive their next delivery. If a container is not returned within six weeks, the customer is charged for it. The service claims its packages, which look a lot like traditional foam “clamshells,” are dishwasher safe and can be reused over 1,000 times.
Operating under the tagline of “food you want, sustainably delivered,” DeliverZero has recently released a mobile app and plans to expand from its base in the New York market.
The service’s web site is can be found at deliverzero.com.
Hugh Robert is a faculty member in Holyoke Community College’s hospitality and culinary arts program and has nearly 45 years of restaurant and educational experience. Robert can be reached online at [email protected].
