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Unforced Variations: July 2020 « RealClimate

researchsnappy by researchsnappy
August 1, 2020
in Healthcare Research
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Unforced variations: Jan 2020 « RealClimate
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Predicted as being an above-average year for hurricane activity and with Hurricane Hanna making landfall on US soil, 2020 is looking an interesting Atlantic hurricane season.

The prime 2020 statistic presented on wikithing was the high number of storms (seven) that developed without one reaching hurricane force, apparently the highest number since 2013 and would have been 2011 if Hanna had stayed below hurricane strength.
Wikithing also tells us that, as the eighth storm of the season, Hanna sets the record as ‘the earliest 8th storm of the season’ beating Harvey of 2005 by ten days.

But this does rather miss an interesting stat, particularly as 2005 itself set an interesting start-of-season record stat which is now broken.

Looking back at past seasons since Atlantic the 1970s when satellite data allow a reliable comparison, the number of tropical storms developing prior to the start of August has been on the rise. 2005 emphatically topped that list, itself now topped by 2020. And as I write, NOAA’s National Huricane Center show there is yet with another storm likely to add to the 2020 eight-so-far before the end of July.

Numbers of Atlantic Tropical Storms developed by end July by year:-
1970-79 – 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 0, 1, 3 – ave=1.7
1980-89 – 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 3 – ave=1.1
1990-99 – 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1 – ave=2.2
2000-09 – 0, 1, 1, 4, 0, 7, 3, 3, 4, 0 – ave=2.3
2010-19 – 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2 – ave=3.2
2020 – 8 (&counting)

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